The tropics really came out of the gate strong this year! We were glad to have some waves to report last week, although not as big as initially predicted. Monday/Tuesday was in the knee to thigh range, but still tons of fun with big boards and small expectations. (As evidenced by @realkevinclancy above)
Tropical Storm Colin tracked further north than the models were predicting as the storm was forming. That limited the swell potential by changing the wind direction/strength/duration. It’s a good reminder of the difficulty of pinpointing the path of a tropical system, especially one that is still developing.
Looking forward, there’s not much to talk about wave-wise for next week. This giant blob of moisture sitting on top of us was given a slight chance for development, but that’s no longer really predicted at all. Further out, models are indicating a low coming out of the Ohio River Valley and entering the Atlantic off the Carolinas late next week, followed by another low. It’s a long way out, but the forecasts are showing the same general trend in that time period, so it’s worth keeping an eye-on. There’s a good chance that the predicted low(s) produce mostly westerly wind, but South Beach is one of the few places that can pick up waves from a windfield that doesn’t seem pointed towards the coast. Climatologically, it’s a hot zone for (sub)tropical development this time of year, too.